Commitment Bias
… Sometimes it is actually better to stop, and not finish. Really?
Ever get to a point in a project where the need for the result goes away AND you continue to work anyway. Or, you’ve failed to reach a public goal you’ve set and concluded that you will not be able to reach the goal, yet you continue to try. Or, you’ve tried and tried to build a relationship with a person who shows no interest in building a relationship with you, and you double down and keep trying. Or, you’ve made a financial investment in a company and instead of increasing in value, it begins to tank. And, you hold on to that investment. I’m sure that you can add to this list your own examples where you have done exactly this.
The Decision Lab,1 a Canadian think-tank, writes that commitment bias, or as is sometimes called escalation of commitment or the sunk cost fallacy, describes how people and groups are willing to support their past ideas and decisions, even when new evidence or events makes doing so irrational. The Lab also notes that we tend to interpret evidence in a way that makes our past idea seem better.
The Lab also notes that this is a social and self-serving bias. Inconsistency is not a socially desirable attribute. So, we try to avoid it, even if avoiding it has large costs. “We also like to believe that we have made good choices and have good ideas, so we try not to abort ongoing commitments, even if it would be better to do so.”1
The idea of commitment bias was initially described by Barry M. Straw2 in his 1976 paper, “Knee deep in the big muddy: A study of escalating commitment to a chosen course of action.” In his paper Straw demonstrated that “persons committed the greatest amount of resources to a previously chosen course of action when they were personally responsible for negative consequences.” Simply stated, we really don’t like to give up, feeling that we will be seen as failures.
As an example of this, Eduard Tur3 believes that “commitment bias is one of the major causes of political inefficiencies in the so-called ‘Western democracies.’ Politicians assume position X and won’t change. Behavioral scientists have proved that the more time humans spend sitting with their ideas, the more difficult it will be to change and divest ourselves from these notions.”
So, why do we do this? Why do we find it so difficult to think “Well, I gave it my best” and move on? Tim Herrera,4 editor for the New York Times Smarter Living column, says it this way, beginning with personal mistakes: “Whoopsie: You completely bombed that career-making presentation, missed that deadline you could not miss or said something you absolutely should not have said. The world is going to crumble. Your life is over? Everyone will remember this mistake for the rest of your life! Right?”
Herrera continues: “No, of course we all know that isn’t true. Everyone messes up all the time, and it’s going to happen again. Our mistakes are rarely as big as we imagine them to be, and everyone else has more important things to do than think about your errors.”
The act of holding on to our mistakes as well as hanging onto a project destined for failure, or the attempt to build a relationship that failed, or the sure-fire financial investment that you held onto, are all examples of commitment bias. We, too often, hang onto things that are not working or have not worked, like the presentation we just gave, and let them strongly impact how we behave in the future.
The Decision Lab’s research tells us that “we tend to interpret evidence in a way that makes our past idea better.” Herrera4 writes that “We want to be seen as someone who is consistent, and recognizing that a major decision we’ve made was a mistake shatters that image. Our brains are working against change here on multiple levels, compounding the difficulty to fix a major life mistake.” We don’t want to be seen as a person who gives up.
He quotes Oset Babur5 who, in a recent New York Times article, wrote that “The embarrassment and blow to your self-worth can manifest itself in unlimited ways – and sometimes it feels like it’s manifesting in all ways – and our bodies can even mimic that of physical pain.” We hurt emotionally and sometimes physically and are embarrassed, we feel like we’ve blown our value to ourselves and others.
So, what do you do? You must first be excruciatingly honest with yourself. You acknowledge the mistake, the goal that you cannot reach, the relationship that you cannot build, … It easy to say that you will do this, but actually doing it is much, much harder. Rachel Simmons6 reminds us that being overly critical of ourselves can increase anxiety, and that overthinking is like agonizing self-criticism on repeat.
After accepting the fact that you erred, that you were unable to be successful in this activity, you need to move forward. How?
First, stop digging; let it go. If it’s something you continue to do, take those steps in your power to take to stop making the situation worse and to stop making similar commitments in the future. For example, make it a practice, if at all possible, to buy time before you accept major commitments. Give yourself the time to realistically reflect on the task or assignment you’ve been asked to undertake rather than saying yes without reflecting on the realities of the situation. Understand what you are committing yourself to do. Ask yourself whether or not you have the skills, the time, the patience, the demeanor, etc. to be successful. Take the time to do a walk through your thoughts and explore how you might actually undertake each step of the task. Identify the elements of the task that will be hard for you. Be very honest as you do this.
Second, you may want to make your next “thing,” something that has fewer unknowns and to take smaller steps as you work the assignment. A few real successes will provide strength and encouragement for larger endeavors.
Recovering from our commitments that did not go well, our mistakes, is never easy. There are both external and internal forces working against us. These include our biases that encourage us to stick with bad decisions and social pressures that warn us to avoid change. When you find yourself in such a situation, the first step is for you to forgive yourself and give yourself a break. This will clear your mind and enable you to do a restart.
Take some time this week to do an inventory of the things you are currently working on. Are any of them situations where you are “stuck” and experiencing a commitment bias? If so, ask yourself what your next step might be. Is it time to disengage? To change the parameters of the situation? To abandon the effort? Do take the time to consider the situation and map out a course of action. And, then begin to take action at a “situation appropriate” pace.
Make it a great week for you and your team. . . . jim
Jim Bruce is a Senior Fellow and Executive Coach at MOR Associates. He previously was Professor of Electrical Engineering, and Vice President for Information Systems and CIO at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA.
References:
- The Decision Lab, Commitment Bias. (The Decision Lab is a Canadian think-tank dedicated to democratizing behavioral science through research and analysis.)
- Barry M. Shaw, Knee deep in the big muddy: A study of escalating commitment to a chosen course of action, Academic Press, Journal of Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 16, 27-44 (1976).
- Eduard Jubany Tur, Idea of the Week: Commitment Bias, Hacker Noon, May 2, 2017.
- Tim Herrera, So You’ve Made a Huge Mistake. What Now?, New York Times, June 2019.
- Oset Babur, Talking About Failure Is Crucial for Growth. Here’s How to Do it Right., New York Times, August 2018.
- Rachel Simmons, Everyone Fails. Here’s How to Pick Yourself Back Up., New York Times.
- October 2024 (1)
- September 2024 (4)
- August 2024 (4)
- July 2024 (5)
- June 2024 (4)
- May 2024 (4)
- April 2024 (5)
- March 2024 (4)
- February 2024 (4)
- January 2024 (5)
- December 2023 (3)
- November 2023 (4)
- October 2023 (5)
- September 2023 (4)
- August 2023 (4)
- July 2023 (4)
- June 2023 (4)
- May 2023 (5)
- April 2023 (4)
- March 2023 (1)
- January 2023 (4)
- December 2022 (3)
- November 2022 (5)
- October 2022 (4)
- September 2022 (4)
- August 2022 (5)
- July 2022 (4)
- June 2022 (4)
- May 2022 (5)
- April 2022 (4)
- March 2022 (5)
- February 2022 (4)
- January 2022 (4)
- December 2021 (3)
- November 2021 (4)
- October 2021 (3)
- September 2021 (4)
- August 2021 (4)
- July 2021 (4)
- June 2021 (5)
- May 2021 (4)
- April 2021 (4)
- March 2021 (5)
- February 2021 (4)
- January 2021 (4)
- December 2020 (4)
- November 2020 (4)
- October 2020 (6)
- September 2020 (5)
- August 2020 (4)
- July 2020 (7)
- June 2020 (7)
- May 2020 (5)
- April 2020 (4)
- March 2020 (5)
- February 2020 (4)
- January 2020 (4)
- December 2019 (2)
- November 2019 (4)
- October 2019 (4)
- September 2019 (3)
- August 2019 (3)
- July 2019 (2)
- June 2019 (4)
- May 2019 (3)
- April 2019 (5)
- March 2019 (4)
- February 2019 (3)
- January 2019 (5)
- December 2018 (2)
- November 2018 (4)
- October 2018 (5)
- September 2018 (3)
- August 2018 (3)
- July 2018 (4)
- June 2018 (4)
- May 2018 (5)
- April 2018 (4)
- March 2018 (5)
- February 2018 (5)
- January 2018 (3)
- December 2017 (3)
- November 2017 (4)
- October 2017 (5)
- September 2017 (3)
- August 2017 (5)
- July 2017 (3)
- June 2017 (8)
- May 2017 (5)
- April 2017 (4)
- March 2017 (4)
- February 2017 (4)
- January 2017 (4)
- December 2016 (2)
- November 2016 (7)
- October 2016 (5)
- September 2016 (8)
- August 2016 (5)
- July 2016 (4)
- June 2016 (12)
- May 2016 (5)
- April 2016 (4)
- March 2016 (7)
- February 2016 (4)
- January 2016 (10)
- December 2015 (4)
- November 2015 (6)
- October 2015 (4)
- September 2015 (7)
- August 2015 (5)
- July 2015 (6)
- June 2015 (12)
- May 2015 (4)
- April 2015 (6)
- March 2015 (10)
- February 2015 (4)
- January 2015 (4)
- December 2014 (3)
- November 2014 (5)
- October 2014 (4)
- September 2014 (6)
- August 2014 (4)
- July 2014 (4)
- June 2014 (4)
- May 2014 (5)
- April 2014 (5)
- March 2014 (5)
- February 2014 (4)
- January 2014 (5)
- December 2013 (5)
- November 2013 (5)
- October 2013 (10)
- September 2013 (4)
- August 2013 (5)
- July 2013 (8)
- June 2013 (6)
- May 2013 (4)
- April 2013 (5)
- March 2013 (4)
- February 2013 (4)
- January 2013 (5)
- December 2012 (3)
- November 2012 (4)
- October 2012 (5)
- September 2012 (4)
- August 2012 (4)
- July 2012 (5)
- June 2012 (4)
- May 2012 (5)
- April 2012 (4)
- March 2012 (4)
- February 2012 (4)
- January 2012 (4)
- December 2011 (3)
- November 2011 (5)
- October 2011 (4)
- September 2011 (4)
- August 2011 (4)
- July 2011 (4)
- June 2011 (5)
- May 2011 (5)
- April 2011 (3)
- March 2011 (4)
- February 2011 (4)
- January 2011 (4)
- December 2010 (3)
- November 2010 (4)
- October 2010 (4)
- September 2010 (3)
- August 2010 (5)
- July 2010 (4)
- June 2010 (5)
- May 2010 (4)
- April 2010 (3)
- March 2010 (2)
- February 2010 (4)
- January 2010 (4)
- December 2009 (4)
- November 2009 (4)
- October 2009 (4)
- September 2009 (4)
- August 2009 (3)
- July 2009 (3)
- June 2009 (3)
- May 2009 (4)
- April 2009 (4)
- March 2009 (2)
- February 2009 (3)
- January 2009 (3)
- December 2008 (3)
- November 2008 (3)
- October 2008 (3)
- August 2008 (3)
- July 2008 (4)
- May 2008 (2)
- April 2008 (2)
- March 2008 (2)
- February 2008 (1)
- January 2008 (1)
- December 2007 (3)
- November 2007 (3)
- October 2007 (3)
- September 2007 (1)
- August 2007 (2)
- July 2007 (4)
- June 2007 (2)
- May 2007 (3)
- April 2007 (1)
- March 2007 (2)
- February 2007 (2)
- January 2007 (3)
- December 2006 (1)
- November 2006 (1)
- October 2006 (1)
- September 2006 (3)
- August 2006 (1)
- June 2006 (2)
- April 2006 (1)
- March 2006 (1)
- February 2006 (1)
- January 2006 (1)
- December 2005 (1)
- November 2005 (2)
- October 2005 (1)
- August 2005 (1)
- July 2005 (1)
- April 2005 (2)
- March 2005 (4)
- February 2005 (2)
- December 2004 (1)