Today’s Tuesday Reading is from Sean McDonald of MOR Associates. He may be reached at [email protected] or via LinkedIn.
Uncertainty can be described as a situation where something is unknown. However, almost every moment of every day involves some level of the unknown. As Ben Franklin famously said, “Nothing is certain except death and taxes.” If uncertainty is a constant, another factor we must consider is fear.
When uncertainty exists without fear, we have trust—trust in what will come, trust in our environment, and trust in ourselves and those around us. On the other hand, when uncertainty is paired with fear, we feel threatened. This sense of threat can trigger the brain’s instinctive responses: fight, flight, or freeze. The intent of this essay is to support your forward movement with four areas of focus (Pause, Process, Plan, People) as you navigate through uncertainty toward trust; trust in self, trust in an intentional path you put before you, and trust with the people around you.
Pause
With the reminder of our instinctual responses in mind, the first practice to embrace is pausing. Give yourself the space to step away from the constant stream of news and noise. Perhaps it’s a specific space where you go, a place you can breathe a bit easier. Research suggests that incorporating physical activity, like taking a walk, helps reduce stress and allows your brain to open up to a more intentional path forward.
Process
Have an iterative strategic thinking process and a checklist of things you can revisit often. It’s akin to approaching a puzzle with a process of flipping over all the pieces for clarity and meaningfully sorting what is in front of you before diving into action. However, unlike a recreational puzzle, navigating uncertainty might be more like a puzzle where new pieces are constantly added, and people are uttering direction or misdirection all around you. When the immediate feels like the important, it’s all the more reason to pause and make time for your strategic thinking process, even small amounts of time, to think about what matters, what is in our control, and what you let influence your choices and future direction. Here are four steps to consider as part of your strategic thinking process:
- Inputs. How are you focusing your attention? What inputs do you have? What are you reading? Who are you talking to? What new information exists? And how are you distinguishing fact from fiction?
- Implications. What are the potential implications? Think through if-then scenarios. Explore “what if” and “what else” scenarios. Force yourself also to see where opportunity might exist. Yes, uncertainty can feel challenging, but with change comes new possibilities as well. Begin to narrow down what might matter most for you, your team, or your organization.
- Internal. What do you and your team offer at this time? What strengths can you leverage? What weaknesses need to be managed? What new approaches might we develop to answer the needs of what is coming?
- Inform. From this open process, determine what to let in. What deserves to inform your plans? What will you allow to influence your direction? Uncertainty is about navigating the unknown. We may not get it exactly right. Still, leaders must sort out higher likelihoods and the most important paths to follow.
Plan
The process for regular strategic thinking is in service of creating a plan. A plan points you to the best path forward, offering both direction and hope. While hope is not a strategy, it allows us a view beyond the uncertainty and gives us something stable to focus on amid the noise. As Winston Churchill famously said—though I’ll tweak one word—“When you are going through uncertainty, keep going.” In times of uncertainty, having a clear vision of what lies on the other side, paired with a next step, can make all the difference.
These plans need to be focused, with clear priorities and actionable steps. As uncertainty evolves, new information surfaces, which is why our iterative thinking process is essential for recalculating and adapting as needed. There’s a well-known saying: “You can’t control the wind, but you can adjust the sails.”
These plans bring intentionality over instinctive reactions such as fight, flight, or freeze. Along with increased communication, the people around us can stay informed and engaged. They, too, feel the impacts of uncertainty, and a plan gives us goals to pursue, and there is power in shared goals.
People
Steve Gallagher, the CIO of Stanford University, once told a MOR program cohort, “The person with the plan wins.” His words were in my mind as I prepared this essay. In further reflection, the true winners, especially in uncertain times, are the people around the leader with the plan. A well-thought-out plan from a trusted leader provides much-needed reassurance in challenging times. Without it, many will retract, disconnect, and attempt to wait it out. Silos can strengthen, and frankly, with the absence of a plan, someone with less knowledge of your area may put forward a plan that impacts you directly.
As leaders, we are responsible for leading, making sense of the uncertainty, and putting forward a vision, especially in challenging times. We need to bring people together and activate the community. Candor is important. We need to acknowledge the uncertainty that change will occur. We need to bring clarity to our direction and help point to the opportunity. We can give people the tools they need to be successful during uncertainty and empower them to pursue the plan. Investing in the community and reinforcing productive and desired collaboration norms will have a compounding impact and will be what is remembered.
Final Thoughts
I have had the great fortune of hearing thousands of leadership stories, many about resilience and overcoming uncertainty. These leadership lessons give me confidence that we will get through uncertain times. However, it will be different on the other side. The question is: will you sit it out and see how things settle, or will you lean in, recognize the opportunity ahead, and help shape the future?
Last week we asked about your relationship with discomfort.
- 21% said they seek out and often lean into discomfort.
- 41% said they sometimes lean into discomfort.
- 28% said they lean into discomfort only when they have to.
- 10% said Eeek! Keep me away from discomfort.
Discomfort is, well, not comfortable. It is difficult for many of us to lean into. However, as we discussed in this week’s essay, having a plan and helping others navigate uncertainty can provide a beacon of hope and reassurance just when it is needed most.